Scientists Identify What Triggers Extreme Summer Heat in the Arabian Gulf

New study could help forecast marine heatwaves months in advance, protecting coral reefs and fisheries

Abu Dhabi, UAE, December 29, 2025: A new study from the Mubadala ACCESS Center at NYU Abu Dhabi reveals why some summers in the Arabian Gulf become unusually hot, creating marine heatwaves that could threaten coral reefs, fisheries, and coastal ecosystems. Understanding these drivers could allow scientists and local authorities to predict extreme summer conditions two to three months in advance, providing valuable time to prepare and protect the region’s marine life.

The Arabian Gulf is the warmest sea on Earth during summer. While local marine species have adapted to naturally high temperatures, unusually warm years can trigger mass coral bleaching and disrupt entire ecosystems. Until now, the reasons behind these extreme temperature events were unclear.

By combining long-term observations with advanced ocean model simulations, the research team found that Gulf marine heatwaves occur when two key wind patterns shift: the local northwesterly Shamal winds weaken and the summer Indian monsoon winds intensify. This combination increases moisture in the Gulf’s atmosphere, trapping heat at the sea surface. These conditions are most likely during La Niña events, when unusually cold waters appear in the tropical Pacific, and when the North Atlantic Oscillation enters a weaker phase, altering storm patterns over the Atlantic. When both climate patterns align, the Gulf experiences its hottest waters.

“The study reveals something surprising,” said NYU Abu Dhabi Senior Scientist and lead author of the study Zouhair Lachkar. “Unlike other oceans, where marine heatwaves are often caused by clear skies and intense sunshine, the Gulf’s extreme sea temperatures happen under humid, hazy conditions. And while El Niño usually drives heatwaves elsewhere, here it is La Niña that favors them.”

“Our findings have important implications for predicting extreme heat events weeks to months before they occur,” said Co-director of the Mubadala ACCESS Center and senior author of the study John Burt. “This gives marine managers and decision makers advance notice to monitor and protect vulnerable ecosystems such as coral reefs. This aligns with our goal at Mubadala ACCESS of producing regionally relevant research that has global impact.”

The study highlights the potential for early-warning systems for marine heatwaves in the Arabian Gulf, helping safeguard biodiversity, fisheries, and coastal communities as climate change intensifies extreme weather patterns.

Times Higher Education ranks NYU among the world’s top 31 universities, making NYU Abu Dhabi the highest ranked university in the UAE. The University’s research enterprise includes more than 90 faculty labs and projects that have produced more than 9,500 internationally recognized publications. According to the Nature Index, NYUAD ranks number one in the UAE for publications in the world’s leading science journals.